Published: Sun, November 12, 2017
Markets | By Rosalie Gross

United States corn production up, soybean down from October

United States corn production up, soybean down from October

What type of yield estimate will the USDA start with for the 2018 season?

Based on November 1 conditions, average corn yield in 2017 was forecast at a record 175.4 bushels an acre, up 3.6 bushels from October and up 0.8 bushels from 174.6 bushels an acre in 2016, the previous record.

Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) grains closed higher on Friday with corn and soybeans bouncing from previous lows triggered by raised yield estimates.

"Corn is the centre of attention after the USDA report".

Global course grain production is an estimated at 125.9 million bushels higher, for a total of 52.0681 billion bushels.

Bottom-line, record yield being forecast for the US more than offsets the reductions in the global forecast.

USDA did not revise the average farm price range of $2.80 to $3.60 per bushel. Total production is expected to be 944.8 million bushels, down less than 1 percent from 2016.

December futures broke below the wedge Knorr has discussed earlier in the week. As I've said for many many weeks, I don't believe the low is yet in place. "And usage for ethanol looks stronger than USDA forecasts, which could also whittle away at supplies". Based on conditions as of November 1, yields are expected to average 168 bushels per acre, up four bushels from last month's forecast, but down 10 bushels from a year ago. That keeps the crop slightly behind 2016's record-breaking yields of 52.0 bpa.

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Kansas growers are also forecast to bring in a record 204 million bushels of soybeans, up 6 percent from previous year. The agency's revised global stock forecasts for 2017-18 of 267.53 million metric tons were a record. Last month the USDA predicted average yields in Colorado would be 145.0 bushels per acre, but that figure was increased to 148.0 this month.

US corn futures hit a one-year low on Thursday before edging higher on Friday. Argentina and Brazilian production was left "unchanged".

Today's close will say a lot about the tone of the soybean market, Knorr adds.

Still, the January soybean contracts are above the 200-day, 100-day and 50-day moving averages, which will provide support to the market. "Failure to hold support could trigger some liquidation by funds, which have tried to establish a small bullish bet on soybeans lately".

The U.S.D.A. has increased its corn production outlook for Iowa and the nation. That was 41% lower than last week and down 53.8% from this week a year ago.

Globally, wheat supplies are down fractionally, with global use fractionally higher. In turn, ending stocks are pushed higher from 2.340 billion to 2.487 billion bushels.

The USDA forecast soybean carryover on September 1, 2018, at 425 million bus.

The next round of WASDE and Crop Production reports will be released on December 12.

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